Hidden Vote Vs. State Election
Since the beginning of the presidential campaign, even long before, all voting intention surveys have registered a large advantage for Claudia Sheinbaum over Xóchitl Gálvez , a consequence of the unquantifiable number of resources — fiscal and of black origin — that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has squandered to favor it.
Not only that. The so-called Fourth Transformation has deployed 20 thousand brigade members clad in cherry vests who, under the orders of the federal Welfare Secretariat, governors, mayors, senators and Morenoist deputies coerce the vote among those who receive the so-called social support.
López Obrador’s daily violations of electoral legislation in his matinees, when intervening in support of his candidates and against opponents, have also weighed among the less informed and, therefore, less reflective audiences.
The machinery of the AMLO Movement is working at full steam.
In front of it, also striving to avoid being overwhelmed, the opposition Coalition also throws its rest into the campaigns of its candidates, without this being reflected in the polls.
Well, because such statistical studies are rigged, since it has been proven that Morena uses them as electoral propaganda…
… but, also, because they are not able to quantify the high percentage of citizens who refuse to answer who they will vote for next Sunday. They are within their rights.
Enkoll, for example, quantifies 19 percent of null votes and still predicts 60 points for Sheinbaum and thirty for Gálvez.
The truth is that the country is experiencing polarization, also electoral, that has an impact on the polls.
Therefore, rather than relying on certain studies of this type that are abundant today because it is a large commercial business, the most appropriate thing would be for the parties and their candidates to use the Simulation Voting technique, with replicas of voter credentials and secret ballot boxes. This is to offer greater guarantees to voters regarding the anonymity of their responses. The method is expensive, but much more accurate.
Recent federal and state election results have shown that polling does not fall into the category of exact science.
And this is due not only to abstentionism, but also to the intention of the vote that those who do go to the polls hide.
There is no reason to trust the polls too much, then. Their failures to correctly predict results always provoke criticism after the election.
They are misleading. And that has not changed. Nor would it have to change, with the lax INE rules to monitor them.
Morena, the most affected by the non-response?
In journalistic analyzes it is quite common to find references to the phenomenon of hidden voting as an explanation for the errors produced by opinion institutes weeks and even days before the elections.
A considerable percentage of those interviewed take refuge in the “don’t know/don’t answer” in the questionnaires.
Why do they do it?
In some cases, these individuals are hiding their partisan preferences.
On other occasions, this behavior responds to the indecision of the interviewees.
However, both vote concealment and indecision are not necessarily distributed evenly among all parties.
It could happen that Morena is the most affected by the non-response, due to the fear that the four-party Administration has injected among the population with its unveiled threats of loss of social programs if they do not vote for Sheinbaum.
But it could also be the Coalition that covers Gálvez with its acronym, precisely for the same reason. If they say that they will pay for it, they believe that the resources that we pay taxes for the so-called Welfare Programs would be at risk.
In any case, survey samples are biased when the hidden vote percentage ranges between 15 and 20 percent.
And in 2024, all those demographic studies are.
Xóchitl would be the beneficiary, according to experts
Not only the opponents of the 4T, led by Xóchitl Gálvez, hope and trust that the hidden vote added to a high attendance of citizens at the polling stations can change the regrettable situation in which our country finds itself today.
National and foreign experts also agree on this.
A few days ago, for example, the New York newspaper with worldwide circulation The Wall Street Journal published that “the possibility of a large hidden vote could still produce a surprise,” which also mentioned the attempts of the Cuatrotero regime to give as a mere processing the result of the election in favor of the ruling party Claudia Sheinbaum.
“What is at stake in the Mexican elections” is the title of the text signed by the WSJ Editorial Board that, at the outset, poses the big question:
“Will the ruling Morena party achieve a legislative majority large enough to rewrite the Constitution?”
“There is a lot at stake,” the editorial says, raising as the most important question whether the ruling Morena party of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador can come closer to its vision of a one-party state.
“AMLO, as the president is known, has a limited term and will not be on the ballot. But Morena’s successor, hand-picked by him, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, leads the polls and promises to continue his left-wing nationalist economics agenda and eliminate constitutional checks and balances,” warns The Wall Street Journal .
It mentions that the opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez was nominated by a coalition of parties united in their concern about a Sheinbaum presidency that could make AMLO “pull the political strings behind the throne.”
Entrepreneurship, competition, solid property rights and open markets are the themes of Gálvez’s campaign that differentiate her from Sheinbaum and AMLO, the US media maintains, highlighting that the licensed senator would seek closer cooperation with the United States. United on economic and security issues.
“Gálvez’s Mexico would be an ally of the West,” he says. And “it would break with the foreign policy of López Obrador, who has been using migration as a bargaining chip with the Biden Administration to prevent US action under the USMCA to force Mexico to stop discriminating against foreign investors.” in energy,” notes the Journal.
“AMLO’s Mexico is an ally of Venezuela and Cuba and home to a large number of Russian intelligence agents, according to the United States Northern Command in 2022,” states the editorial, which highlights that the López Obrador government claims to follow a policy of non-intervention in other countries, but three of its ambassadors have been declared persona non grata for interfering in supporting the left in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador.
“AMLO’s government is using its media allies to claim that the elections are over. But sampling bias and the possibility of a large hidden vote could still produce a surprise,” the editorial concludes.
Surprise for AMLO and his followers!
The hidden vote would annul the state election that is underway.
Indications
And the National Electoral Institute? Well, he only remains uncritical, silent, in the face of the obvious choice of State. López Obrador has only received slight slaps on the wrist in the face of his multiple violations of the legislation that governs the elections, among many others that he tramples on daily in his propaganda-comic-musical matinees. This, even though it was he who demanded that deputies and senators reform the codes now in force to avoid the interference of the Federal Executive, which would tip the balance in favor of his candidates. But we already know, he should not produce the “story that the law is the law” … and even less so if he has accomplices like some of those headed by Guadalupe Taddei. * * * And that’s all for today. Always recognized with your reading of this species, I wish you good thanks and many, many days!
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